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Mesoscale Discussion 1410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Areas affected...southwestern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071908Z - 072215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying scattered thunderstorms developing within the
next few hours may begin to consolidate with increasing potential to
produce strong surface gusts by 4-6 PM MDT.  Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...An area of persistent convective development, generally
rooted within weak large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, has been gradually spreading
east-northeastward across southwestern Montana and adjacent portions
of the northern Rockies.  Additional deepening convective
development is ongoing associated with areas of orographically
forced lift, as latest objective analysis indicates considerable
lingering inhibition for a gradually destabilizing boundary-layer. 
However, with continued boundary-layer warming in response to
insolation, further erosion of inhibition may allow for intensifying
boundary-layer based convection and increasing thunderstorm activity
within the next couple of hours.

In the presence of steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates,
mixed-layer CAPE around 1000+ J/kg, and modest deep-layer shear
beneath 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, initial
storms may beco*e capable of producing marginally severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts.  By 22-00Z, various model output has
been suggestive that convection and associated cold pools may begin
to consolidate into a better organized convective system with
potential to produce increasingly widespread strong surface gusts,
as it propagates northeast and east of the higher terrain of
southwest Montana.

..Kerr/Grams.. 07/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   46601482 47241368 47591131 45420932 44841269 45541471
            46601482