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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible today mainly across
Montana, and from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Carolinas.
Damaging winds will be possible over all areas, with large hail also
expected over Montana.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across much of the central/southern U.S.
as broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast
today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will pivot around the
upper ridge through the day, serving as the main source of
deep-layer ascent to support scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms, from the Northern Rockies to the Carolina Piedmont.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains...
Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will advect 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates across much of Montana during the afternoon,
which will overspread a relatively dry boundary layer extending to
at least 700 mb, contributing to at least 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Though low to mid-level wind speeds are
expected to be weak to modest in magnitude, ample veering through
the surface-500 mb layer will support 30-50 kts of effective bulk
shear. Several supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop with
an initial large-hail threat (including a couple instances of 2+
inch diameter stones possible). In addition, an initial supercell
that can beco*e sustained and traverse either old outflow areas, or
benefit from enhanced easterly winds in terrain-favoring areas may
acquire brief low-level rotation/spawn a brief tornado. However,
modest tropospheric winds and ample evaporative cooling in the dry
boundary layer may support supercells quickly beco*ing outflow
dominant, with severe wind gusts also a concern as far east as far
western North/South Dakota. Storms should gradually weaken after
sunset.  

...Central Tennessee Valley into the Carolina Piedmont...
Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, ample heating through the day
of a very moist boundary layer will support adequate buoyancy (i.e.
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop by afternoon peak heating, from
the KY/TN border to the Atlantic Seaboard. Given negligible CINH by
afternoon, numerous pulse cellular/multicellular storms are expected
to develop, with outflow and subsequent cold pool mergers likely
shortly after storm initiation. Weak, but deep-layer
west-northwesterly tropospheric flow will support
southeastward-drifting convective clusters with the potential to
produce spotty wind damage through roughly sunset.

...Middle Mississippi Valley...
Some guidance hints at a mid-level impulse/small MCV developing from
previous day's storms across the central/southern High Plains, which
is poised to traverse the central Plains and approach the Middle MS
Valley by afternoon. Ahead of the MCV, strong surface heating will
support a mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates, that
co*bined with rich low-level moisture will support moderate to
strong instability (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid negligible
CINH). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by afternoon.
Though troposheric winds are weak overall, modest strengthening and
veering of the surface-700 mb layer suggests that some storms may
beco*e organized, supporting at least isolated damaging gusts
through the afternoon. Given the magnitude of low-level veering, and
the possibility of a left-over boundary from early-morning
convection, it is not out of the question for a cell/line segment to
produce a brief tornado.

..Squitieri/Darrow.. 07/07/2022