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Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...much of central into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 062253Z - 070100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 445. Supercells capable of producing severe winds and large
hail should persist into the early evening hours. A brief tornado
also is possible with the more robust, long-lasting supercell
structures.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to develop or persist
across portions of central into eastern Montana, with MRMS mosaic
MESH data suggesting that several supercells have a history of
producing 1.5-3.0 inch hail for the last couple of hours. These
storms are thriving in an environment characterized by 8+ C/km
tropospheric lapse rates amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
(driven by strong 850-500 mb veering with height). Severe hail and
wind should continue to acco*pany the more intense supercell
structures through the evening hours, especially across northeast
MT, where greater storm coverage is expected. Backed low-level flow
may also encourage some transient periods of low-level rotation with
the longest lived storms. A brief tornado was reported earlier
across central MT and an additional brief tornado cannot be
co*pletely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   48221313 48931061 48970800 49000506 48670417 47950403
            47160474 45860603 45230687 44970777 45060897 45201023
            45441133 45841211 46141256 47211305 48221313