SPC MD 1400
[html]MD 1400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022
Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062024Z - 062230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may organize off of the Blue
Ridge in central Virginia. Should this occur, a locally greater
threat for damaging winds would develop. While a watch is not
expected, trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed along the Blue Ridge in
central Virginia. These storms are along the southern fringe of
stronger mid-level winds. Even with surface temperatures in the
low/mid 90s F and dewpoints holding in the low/mid 70s F, poor
mid-level lapse rates have kept MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. The
25-30 kts of shear may be enough to help organize a southeastward
moving cluster this afternoon, which has had some support from CAM
guidance today. Damaging winds would be the primary concern.
However, the area of impact may remain quite limited. A watch is not
currently expected, but trends will be monitored.
..Wendt/Grams.. 07/06/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37888011 38427938 38157813 37677760 37017815 37127898
37437993 37568010 37888011
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Source: SPC MD 1400 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1400.html)