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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe squall line will move east-southeast across the middle
Mississippi Valley this evening into the overnight hours.

...Mid MS Valley this evening into the OH Valley late...
Long-lived severe squall line over IA early this evening will
continue moving east-southeastward on the northern periphery of a
mid-level high situated over the Mid South.  The Davenport, IA 7pm
CDT raob showed 3100 J/kg MLCAPE and a 17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean
mixing ratio.  Although westerly tropospheric flow remains modest
through a deep layer, the mature squall line and associated MCV and
RIJ will continue realizing the ample thermodynamic potential
located downwind of the MCS.  Have extended the 30-percent wind
probabilities farther east into northwest IL accounting for the
expected persistence of the squall line and an associated
severe-wind risk through the evening.  By the early overnight, the
squall line will likely be located over the southwest Great Lakes
region with it beco*ing more disorganized.  Nonetheless, the risk
for strong to severe gusts may continue into the late night.

...Central and northern Great Plains...
Diurnal storms early this evening will continue to pose a risk for
hail/wind in the near term across the central High Plains.  The
storm activity over northeast MT associated with a weak mid-level
disturbance, will likely move into western ND by late this evening. 
Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with these
storms.  In the areas well removed from ongoing convection this
evening, it remains unclear whether a risk for strong to severe
storms will develop tonight across adjacent portions of SD/northern
NE atop the outflow in wake of the IA squall line.  Will maintain
severe probabilities accounting for this uncertainty.

...Northern SC...
A broken squall line will continue to move south-southeast into a
moist/unstable airmass over the Carolina Piedmont this evening. 
Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will remain possible
through the mid evening hours before this a gradual weakening in
storm intensity occurs.

..Smith.. 07/06/2022