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Mesoscale Discussion 1385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland into Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052150Z - 052315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado remains possible with the
more persistent supercell structures over the next couple of hours.
A WW issuance is unlikely given the isolated nature of the severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have developed over the
past hour across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic in association
with a small but pronounced 500 mb vort max grazing the region. The
21Z mesoanalysis depicts up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in place, driven
primarily by rich, deep low-level moisture. Modest low to mid-level
directional shear is contributing to sizable, curved hodographs (per
2124Z DOX VWP), with mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings showing
200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH. As such, a damaging gust or a brief
tornado may acco*pany the more persistent supercell structures
through the remainder of the afternoon. A WW issuance is not
expected since the tornado threat is expected to remain sparse.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38867694 39327657 39477615 39437566 39197529 38847523
            38547532 38307554 38207596 38247645 38397683 38867694