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Mesoscale Discussion 1378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...central through southeastern South Dakota and
adjacent southwestern Minnesota....northwestern Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...

Valid 051731Z - 051930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of severe storms appears likely to be
maintained, and continue to be acco*panied by severe wind gusts and
hail while approaching the Sioux Falls area through 1-3 PM CDT.  A
new severe weather watch probably will be needed east-southeast of
WW 436.

DISCUSSION...Despite considerable lingering inhibition for
seasonably moist boundary-layer parcels (including surface dew
points near 70F) within its inflow , forcing for ascent along the
convectively generated cold pool continues to overco*e mid-level
capping and maintain intense convective development now southeast
through east of the Pierre vicinity.  Beneath very steep lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates, CAPE is increasing in excess of 3000 J/kg,
and strongest convection continues to be acco*panied by heavy rain,
occasional severe hail and frequent lightning flash rates.

Heavy precipitation loading, and melting/evaporation of
precipitation within the downdrafts, are aiding downward transfer of
30-50+ kt rear inflow, and contributing to occasional severe surface
gusts.  With continuing boundary-layer warming and at least some
further erosion of inhibition near/ahead of activity, this all seems
likely to be maintained across and north of the Interstate 90
corridor into the Sioux Falls area by around 20Z.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45049877 44659642 43579646 43049717 43419830 43779928
            44039983 44399903 45049877