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Mesoscale Discussion 1373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

Valid 050817Z - 051015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk will continue to gradually diminish across WW
434, with new/downstream watch not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a still-linearly organized band
of storms moving southeastward across northern Indiana and impinging
on northwestern Ohio at this time.

Storms over adjacent/far southeastern Lower Michigan have shown
noted weakening as they approach northwestern Ohio just west of the
western shore of Lake Erie -- as expected given the much more stable
airmass indicated over Ohio.

Meanwhile to the west/southwest, storms remain more vigorous across
northern Indiana, but have largely fallen gradually below severe
levels, with the strongest observed gust from official observing
networks being 35 kt, over the past hour.

Western portions of this band of storms show a decidedly anafrontal
character per radar data -- consistent with storms that are
occurring in low-level warm advection atop a southwestward-moving
cold pool.

Overall, while instability remaining across Indiana is sufficient to
allow this convective band to persist, risk for severe-level gusts
continues to beco*e increasingly localized, and to diminish
gradually with time.  Given that risk for severe-caliber hail is
even more limited, current expectations are that an
additional/downstream watch will not be required as storms gradually
begin to spil* from the current bounds of WW 434.

..Goss.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41038679 41078616 41308549 41768458 41068453 40618484
            40558627 40848668 41038679