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Mesoscale Discussion 1367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...

Valid 050309Z - 050515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of
eastern Montana over the next couple of hours. Severe wind gusts and
hail will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Billings shows a
severe line segment at the east end of a cluster of strong
thunderstorms about 80 statute miles north-northeast of Billings.
The RAP has weak instability across much of eastern Montana, where
MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg. In spite of this,
the Billings WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This
co*bined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km should be
favorable for rotating storms with large hail potential. A
wind-damage threat will also exist along the leading edge of the
stronger line segments. The severe threat should move eastward
across WW 433 over the next few hours. Although a potential for
severe wind gusts will likely continue, the threat may remain
relatively focused.

..Broyles.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48020649 48080701 48060737 47890782 47610816 47120829
            46400819 46140782 46030738 46070626 46180546 46500500
            47070489 47640517 47930580 48020649