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SPC MD 1362

SPC MD 1362

[html]MD 1362 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
       
MD 1362 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...Northwest Nebraska...Southwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042246Z - 050115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected to develop from parts
of northwestern and north-central Nebraska into southwest South
Dakota over the next couple of hours. The threat should remain
isolated and weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Cheyenne shows
developing storms across far western Nebraska, with additional
isolated convection ongoing in southwest South Dakota. The latest
HRRR moves this convection eastward across northwest Nebraska and
southwest South Dakota over the next few hours. MLCAPE is estimated
by the RAP to increase with eastward extent to around 2500 J/kg in
north-central Nebraska. Forecast soundings across northern Nebraska
have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat early this evening. Although a few strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible, the threat should be too
isolated for watch issuance.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42659993 42119992 41790000 41550053 41520152 41550283
            41870339 42600365 43290357 43640313 43610235 43370139
            43040042 42659993


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Source: SPC MD 1362 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1362.html)