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Mesoscale Discussion 1361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...portions of east-central Illinois into west-central
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042240Z - 050015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe gusts may acco*pany ongoing
storms in east-central Illinois over the next couple of hours if the
storms can sustain themselves. Conditions are being monitored for
the need of a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch if it beco*es
apparent that storms will last with any vigor for at least a few
more hours.

DISCUSSION...A multicellular co*plex of storms (with some cells
exhibiting transient, outflow-dominant supercell characteristics)
have produced strong to marginally severe wind gusts over the past
couple of hours. MRMS mosaic radar data shows 30-50 dBZ echo top
trends remaining fairly constant over the past couple of hours, with
some slight weakening in the past 10-20 minutes. While deep-layer
ascent along the IL/IN border is weak, strong surface heating ahead
of the storms has promoted surface temperatures to rise to near 90
F, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer co*prising 8 C/km 0-3 km
lapse rates. However, a favorable parameter space of overlapping
1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk shear exist only a few
counties ahead of the storms, raising questions regarding how long
the storms (and severe potential) will last. Conditions are being
monitored for the need of a potential watch should the storms take
advantage of the steeper low-level lapse rates over the more limited
CAPE/shear parameter space to support a sustained cold pool and
associated damaging gust threat.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39678831 39958853 40158855 40448856 40678847 40788830
            40788792 40688762 40468725 40228680 39918659 39608669
            39468692 39348725 39428770 39678831