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Mesoscale Discussion 1357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041922Z - 042115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasionally strong wind gusts are possible with a linear
segment near the Wisconsin/Illinois border. The degree of risk is
conditional on how much airmass recovery can occur ahead of it
despite influence from thunderstorms farther south in central
Illinois. A watch is currently not expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A linear segment of thunderstorms has intensified in
southwestern Wisconsin even with limited instability present. This
feature is likely aided by forcing from the MCV. A recent 47 kt gust
in Mineral Point, WI (with reported tree damage) suggest that
low-level thermodynamics are sufficient to support a few stronger
gusts. There is a fairly high degree of uncertainty with this
activity as it is moving into areas of southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois that have been impacted by precipitation earlier
today. The most recent METAR from Rockford, IL shows temperatures
have cooled from 81 F to 77 F. However, with the very moist
low-level profile and 30-40 kt winds above the surface due to the
MCV, an occasional strong gust may occur. Temperatures near the
WI/IL lakeshores are warmer (low 80s F). If this activity can
persist and ingest that airmass, wind damage would be modestly
greater. Given the uncertainties, a watch is not anticipated for
this activity this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42629039 42948971 42888845 42618795 42308797 42018886
            41908931 42018975 42519034 42629039