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Mesoscale Discussion 1356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of east-central/northeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041840Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in organization has occurred with storms
along Interstate 80. The downstream environment should support an
increase in damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential until
roughly the Indiana border. No watch is expected for this activity.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues to move east along I-80.
Recent MRMS 7 km CAPPI data shows updrafts continue to deepen as
they encounter warmer temperatures in east-central Illinois.
Dewpoints ahead of the cluster also have increase over the past
couple of hours to the low 70s F. One particular updraft in Bureau
County has shown greater organization in the last hour. KDVN
velocity data has shown at least weak mid-level rotation with this
storm. Given continued heating of the downstream environment, an
increase in damaging wind potential (and perhaps marginally severe
hail) could occur over the next 2-3 hours. Beyond that time,
activity will likely reach the Indiana border where dewpoints are
only in the low 60s F. A weakening trend would then be anticipated
as storms ingest less buoyant air. Given the limited area of impact,
a watch is not expected for this activity.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40838973 41328993 41538992 41718971 41888917 41808825
            41408768 40958757 40558780 40538844 40678924 40838973