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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MT...SOUTHWEST ND AND NORTHWEST SD...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD...NORTHEAST NE...NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across parts of the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main
threats. The most intense gusts and very large hail are expected
across eastern Montana into the Middle Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...

The overall forecast philosophy remains similar to the previous Day
2 outlook, though confidence has increased in greater significant
severe potential across parts of eastern MT into the Middle Missouri
Valley Tuesday afternoon/evening.

An amplified upper ridge will be in place over the Plains, while an
upper trough pivots east across the lower Great Lakes/Northeast
vicinity. Several shortwave perturbations are forecast to migrate
through the crest of the ridge from the central/northern Rockies
into the central/northern Plains. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is
forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest into southern Ontario
Tuesday morning. The front will develop southward through the
period, beco*ing positioned from southern MN to northern Ohio then
eastward to central NJ and offshore from the Northeast coast.

...SD/NE/IA/MN Vicinity...

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing across
parts of ND/SD Tuesday morning. This activity could pose a threat
for hail through the morning as it drifts east/southeast. By
afternoon, these storms may re-intensify, or new convection may
develop, within increasing moisture along a baroclinic zone along
the NE/SD border ahead of the surface front. Surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70 F and strong heating on the northern
periphery of the low/midlevel thermal ridge, and beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates, will result in a corridor of strong
instability greater than 2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
greater than 30 kt will result in organized updrafts. Long, straight
hodographs and a deep effective inflow layer will support supercells
capable of very large hail. Forecast guidance also suggests some
potential for upscale development is possible via storm-scale
interactions and a modestly increasing southerly low-level jet
during the evening. Given expected strong instability and very steep
low-level lapse rates, this activity also will have the potential to
produce intense damaging gusts.

...Eastern MT into the Western Dakotas Vicinity...

High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain
during the afternoon. Easterly low-level flow will bring increasing
low-level moisture westward through the afternoon. As higher-based
storms encounter higher-quality moisture and instability across
eastern MT, potential for significant severe thunderstorms will
increase. Supercell wind profiles are forecast, with very steep mid
and low-level lapse rates across the region. Very large hail, and
intense damaging wind gusts are possible. While convection is
expected to mostly be discrete, some bowing segments are possible
across far eastern MT into the western Dakotas by evening. This may
increase damaging wind potential during the evening.

...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic...

Forecast confidence is less across the region co*pared to areas
further west. This is partly due to expected areas of ongoing
showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover across the Ohio Valley
vicinity Tuesday morning. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and
unstable airmass will reside downstream from this activity, and
redevelop/intensification is expected by afternoon across parts of
WV/PA into the Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected
to develop ahead of the southward-sagging cold front further west
across parts of WI/MI into IL and the lower OH Valley. Moderate
deep-layer shear will support organized clusters/bowing segments,
and swaths of strong wind gusts will possible from late afternoon
into the evening. Some hail potential also will acco*pany stronger,
more semi-discrete cellular activity as well.

..Leitman.. 07/04/2022