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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from
parts of the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
Some thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across a portion
of the Midwest. It remains unclear whether they will persist with
eastward extent into the afternoon. A nearly stationary front across
the Midwest into the OH Valley should provide a focus for severe
convection on Wednesday. As diurnal heating occurs, strong
instability should develop along/south of the boundary by Wednesday
afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection. One or more bowing clusters may move east-southeastward
across this favorable thermodynamic environment through the period,
with latest guidance offering a myriad of possible solutions/tracks
to these possible MCSs. Regardless, have included a zone of Slight
Risk equivalent severe probabilities where confidence is somewhat
greater in robust thunderstorms occurring capable of producing
severe/damaging winds and hail. Farther east across southern VA into
the Carolinas, deep-layer shear is forecast to be a bit weaker.
Still, multiple loosely organized clusters capable of producing
mainly wind damage should occur as convection develops along/south
of a front and spreads east-southeastward through Wednesday evening.


...Northern Rockies/Plains...
Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains through the
period. But, a weak shortwave trough should overspread parts of the
northern Rockies/Plains through Wednesday evening. Modest
large-scale ascent associated with this feature should encourage
convective development over the higher terrain initially. As this
activity spreads into the adjacent High Plains, it will likely
encounter greater low-level moisture and related instability.
Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for a mix of multicells and
supercells capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds.

..Gleason.. 07/04/2022