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Mesoscale Discussion 1339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Western and Central North Carolina...Upstate South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031820Z - 032045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the mountains of western NC
will spread east-southeastward into the Piedmont region.  The
stronger cells will produce brief gusty/damaging winds.  A watch is
not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery show increasing
thunderstorms  over the mountains of western NC.  This activity is
expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon as strong
heating and dewpoints in around 70F yield MLCAPE values of ~2000
J/kg.  Low-level lapse rates will be rather steep today as
temperatures ahead of the convection rise into the 90s.  However,
mid-level lapse rates are weak, and winds through the cloud-bearing
layer are generally below 20 knots.  Isolated cells across the
Piedmont region will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds
this afternoon, but the risk of a more organized severe threat
appears limited.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35188265 36228110 36527980 36087945 35587996 35018092
            34678216 34618277 34828308 35188265