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Mesoscale Discussion 1337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Southeast SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031724Z - 031900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for localized hail and damaging wind gusts may
persist through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An isolated strong thunderstorm has recently evolved
along the southern periphery of an elevated storm cluster that
developed overnight and moved eastward across SD. It appears that
this new cell is being sustained along the eastern edge of a
buoyancy gradient, in conjunction with steepening midlevel lapse
rates and favorable low-level moisture. Recent intensification
trends and weakening MLCINH suggest that this storm may be beco*ing
surface based. Modest midlevel westerly flow is supporting effective
shear for a surface-based storm of 30-40 kt, so evolution into a
supercell appears possible in the short term, with an attendant risk
of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. 

The longevity of this cell remains somewhat uncertain, with rather
weak large-scale ascent and most short-term guidance struggling to
maintain convection in this area, but the environment is not
prohibitive for sustained convection, and this storm may persist
into the mid afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the threat and
uncertainty regarding storm longevity, watch issuance is considered
unlikely in the short term.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44079912 44259806 44319759 44249707 43629689 43269705
            43189764 43309817 43729912 44079912