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Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/north-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422...

Valid 030626Z - 030800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong storms -- capable of producing brief/local
occurrences of severe-caliber wind gusts and hail up to an inch in
diameter -- will continue over the next few hours.  Severe risk
should gradually diminish as the boundary layer further stabilizes.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an arcing band of strong convection
-- around the northern and eastern periphery of an MCV -- crossing
the central third of South Dakota at this time.  The storms are
being fueled by 500 to locally 1000 J/kg increasingly elevated CAPE,
within an area of low-level warm advection associated with a 35 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet.

As the boundary layer continues to gradually cool, potential for
damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms should likewise
diminish over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile though, wind
gusts near severe levels -- and perhaps marginal hail, may still
occur locally where stronger downdrafts can be generated in the
vicinity of the most robust updrafts.

While the easternmost storms have reached the southeastern corner of
WW 422, a new watch does not appear warranted given limited areal
and temporal risk that may exist just outside the watch.  Local
extension of the watch in area and/or time could be implemented
however, prior to the scheduled 03/08Z expiration.

..Goss.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   45030115 45480151 45460065 45039925 44669894 44019898
            43910007 44220040 44720035 45030115