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Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022055Z - 022300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms will be capable of
wind damage and marginally severe hail. Limited buoyancy will keep
the severe threat marginal. No watch is expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level forcing continues to overspread the
Pacific Northwest. Thunderstorms have developed mainly within the
Cascades and the Blue Mountains. Within the Columbia Basin, cumulus
also is deepening. Storms along the eastern Cascade slopes have
shown some signs of moving off of the terrain. With time, additional
storms are expected to form and move off of the higher terrain as
well. Development within the Basin is less certain, however. Given
cold temperatures aloft, fairly minimal moisture has still supported
250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. The greatest buoyancy is within northeast
Oregon where dewpoints remain in the mid/upper 40s F (this area
would be more favorable for an organized supercell). Strong
cloud-bearing shear will support some risk for marginally severe
hail in the stronger storms. Isolated damaging winds are possible as
well due to the deep/well-mixed boundary layer. The limited buoyancy
should generally limit the severe threat. A watch is not expected
this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON   44282175 45961937 46211742 45511659 44131720 43052036
            42762111 43422188 44282175