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Mesoscale Discussion 1322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...Northeast PA into parts of southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 021645Z - 021845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase this afternoon,
acco*panied by a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually increasing from northeast PA
into southern NY early this afternoon, with some weak midlevel
rotation noted with a small cell near Binghamton. Buoyancy is
currently modest across the region, but continued diurnal
heating/destabilization will support MLCAPE of greater than 1000
J/kg later this afternoon from northeast PA into parts of southern
New England. Moderate westerly flow aloft will support effective
shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for organized convection. As storm
coverage increases with time this afternoon, a couple of organized
clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with an attendant
risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is probable later this afternoon once a
greater coverage of organized storms appears imminent.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   42057573 42797350 42937239 42907190 42547184 41727256
            41247392 41167488 41197544 41317597 41467612 41767612
            42057573