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Mesoscale Discussion 0459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern/central Texas.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 112...

Valid 122232Z - 130000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 112 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms including supercells are gradually
moving into a more moist and unstable thermodynamic environment near
I-35. Increasing shear with time may also favor an enhanced tornado
threat with more discrete convection farther south along the dryline
in WW112.

DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, regional radar showed a cluster of
severe thunderstorms and several semi-discrete supercells ongoing
along the US-281/I-35 corridor. Ahead of these storms low-level
moisture gradually increases with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
now present. 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE will continue to support
robust updrafts as this cluster moves east. Coincident with the
improving thermodynamics, strong flow aloft near a southern stream
shortwave trough over east Texas is enhancing mid-level shear
profiles. Regional VWPs show storms are entering 35-45 kts of
effective shear more supportive of semi-discrete/rotating updrafts.
Recent radar trends point to greater organization within the cluster
over the last 15 minutes especially with two semi-discrete cells in
the vicinity of Waco. While low-level shear is not overly strong,
VAD hodographs and surface obs show backed low-level flow with a
large co*ponent of streamwise vorticity within the effective inflow
layer. Tornado potential may be increasing as storms move farther
east into a lower LCL and stronger sheared environment. In addition,
large hail and damaging winds will remain likely given the magnitude
of the buoyancy and very steep lapse rates aloft.

Greater uncertainty exists on the southern end of the cluster where
discrete initiation has occurred near San Antonio. Displaced from
stronger forcing, these updrafts have been slow to organize but may
strengthen as they move farther east into better moisture.

..Lyons.. 04/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   32679775 32909728 33029698 33029642 32879616 32379595
            31989591 31769594 31299610 30969631 30269702 29629776
            29479803 29459835 29569846 29789842 29999829 30359806
            30699796 30939794 31349796 31769795 31939796 32679775