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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible in parts of Upper Michigan this evening. Isolated
marginally severe storms could also occur in parts of the central
Plains.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Great Lakes...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough from southern
Ontario extending southward into western Minnesota, with a plume of
mid-level moisture from the central Rockies into the Great Lakes. At
the surface, a cold front is located from Lake Superior
southwestward into the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorms are
ongoing ahead of the front from eastern Lake Superior
west-southwestward into western Upper Michigan. The RAP suggests
that an axis of moderate instability is located ahead of the front
with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP
at Marquette, Michigan has a unidirectional wind profile above 1 km,
with 60 knots of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This should be
enough to continue a severe threat this evening, with the stronger
multicells that move eastward toward the instability axis. Wind
damage and hail will be the primary threats.

...Central Plains...
At the surface, a cold front is currently located from southeast
Nebraska southwestward into southeastern Colorado. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of the front from far
northern Kansas into far southeast Colorado. The airmasss ahead of
the front is unstable, with the RAP showing MLCAPE mostly between
500 and 1000 J/kg. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is
present, with WSR-88D VWPs across the region having 0-6 km shear in
the 35 to 45 knot range. This co*bined with steep low to mid-level
lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range should enough for
marginally severe wind gusts and hail. The isolated severe threat
may last for a couple more hours this evening.

..Broyles.. 07/01/2022