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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

The primary change to the outlook was to expand the Critical area
into southeast Colorado. Winds of 20-30 mph and 5-15% RH will occur
for a few hours tomorrow. Temperatures will be a bit cool, but
exceptionally dry fuels should still be receptive to fire spread
given the meteorological conditions.

The forecast in parts of Kansas/Nebraska remains somewhat
co*plicated. Temperatures will be a bit cooler in some locations
along with possible cloud cover. However, where heating can occur,
the airmass will be very dry and winds are expected to be strong.
With meteorological conditions expected to be near Critical,
highlights have been expanded into these areas.

..Wendt.. 04/12/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022/

...Synopsis...
As the powerful mid-level cyclone shifts northeastward through Day
1/Tuesday, mid-level flow will turn northwesterly and accelerate
over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Despite cooling
temperatures, very strong wind fields and very low humidity are
expected to develop support a second day of widespread Critical fire
weather conditions within receptive fuels.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
With the mid-level jet turning more westerly with time behind the
departing upper low across the Midwest, strong west/northwesterly
flow will continue to overspread the southern Rockies and High
Plains. Strong downslope winds are expected from eastern NM into the
western TX Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening. With strong
subsidence and downsloping, extremely dry surface conditions appear
likely to develop with model soundings showing mean mixed-layer RH
values as low as 2-3%. Extremely dry fuels remain in place
supporting high confidence in dangerous fire weather conditions.

Lesser confidence exists in the potential for sustained Extremely
Critical conditions across portions of eastern NM and the
southwestern TX Panhandle. The primary concerns revolve around
duration of the stronger winds as a cooler boundary-layer and cold
front may limit any Extremely Critical Conditions. Offset from the
brunt of diurnal heating, overlap appears to be small casting
significant uncertainty. However, fuel states remain exceptionally
favorable for fire spreads/starts supporting at least the potential
for an upgrade to Extremely critical in subsequent outlooks. 

...Central High Plains...
In the wake of the earlier cold front, dry and windy conditions
should develop for a few hours across the central High Plains and
lee of the Rockies. The potential for light precipitation from Day 1
is not expected to hamper extremely dry fuels in place across the
region. While surface temperatures should be cool in the
post-frontal airmass, low relative humidity and gusty winds should
support Elevated fire weather potential for a few hours before the
arrival of cooler temperatures and higher humidity overnight.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)