Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Areas affected...western portions of the Upper Michigan Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 300410Z - 300545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An instance of marginally severe hail may acco*pany the
more dominant elevated storms this evening. A WW issuance is not
expected given the expected brief/sparse nature of the severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Strong 850-700 mb WAA is taking place across the Great
Lakes region in advance of a subtle, embedded mid-level impulse
cresting the large scale upper ridge across the northern Plains. The
MPX 00Z observed sounding depicts 800-600 mb lapse rates around 8
C/km, with southwesterly ambient winds enco*passing this layer. The
03Z mesoanalysis depicts this lapse rate plume advecting
east-northeast towards the Upper Michigan Peninsula, supporting a
wedge of 500 J/kg MUCAPE overspreading the western Great Lakes in
tandem with 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Storms embedded in this
WAA regime have a history of producing large hail across northeast
MN and it is possible that an instance or two of marginally severe
hail may also acco*pany these storms as they traverse the Upper
Michigan Peninsula. Given overall limited MUCAPE (constrained above
600 mb in a tall-skinny profile per 02Z RAP forecast soundings), the
large hail threat is expected to remain quite limited and a WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   46739019 47168940 47398876 47518794 47278782 46738763
            46318766 46088782 45978835 46088918 46369001 46739019