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Mesoscale Discussion 1304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Areas affected...far northeast WY...western half of SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291928Z - 292200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify
through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. 
Severe gusts ranging from 60-75 mph are possible with the stronger
downdrafts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing high-based
convection over northeast WY with a mid-level accas field spreading
east into western SD near the Black Hills.  Clear skies east of
Rapid City have resulted in strong heating with surface temperatures
around 100 deg F and dewpoints around 50.  Forecast soundings
indicate a nearly dry adiabatic lapse rate from the surface to 500
mb based on current surface observations.  Model guidance,
particularly the HRRR, shows storms gradually developing as
convection moves east from near the WY/SD border (surface dewpoints
in the 30s to lower 40s) into slightly richer moisture farther east
near Phillips (dewpoints around 50 deg F).  A semi-organized cluster
of initially skeletal but increasingly robust storms will probably
evolve, with widely scattered to scattered severe gusts ranging from
60-75 mph as this activity moves into central SD towards early
evening.

..Smith/Hart.. 06/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44810479 45560099 45160051 44440048 43790067 43430151
            43460456 44140498 44810479