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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that an amplified split flow
evolving late this week may persist across the eastern Pacific into
western North America into at least the middle of next week.  While
a mid-level high appears likely to be maintained across the Canadian
Yukon and Northwest Territories vicinity, the large-scale mid-level
troughing initially near and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this
weekend may reform a bit farther offshore by the middle of next
week.  As this occurs, and the deep eastern Canadian mid-level low
of Arctic origins finally progresses offshore of Newfoundland and
Labrador and weakens, mid-level ridging may beco*e more prominent in
the southern branch of the westerlies, across the northern Rockies
and the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity into the Upper Midwest.

Coinciding with these developments, a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air will begin to advect east of the northern Rockies. 
Coupled with the return of a seasonably moist boundary layer, it
appears that moderate to large potential instability will develop
once again across much of the Missouri Valley and central
Canadian/U.S. border into Upper Midwest during the early to middle
portion of next week.

Short wave perturbations emerging from the Pacific coast mid-level
troughing, before progressing around the northern periphery of the
downstream ridging, might contribute to increasing potential for
organized thunderstorm development from parts of the northern
Intermountain region across and to the lee of the northern Rockies
as early as Sunday.  There has been some signal that at least one
vigorous perturbation may emerge (coincident with the increasing
instability) which could contribute to one or two organized
convective systems with substantive severe weather potential,
sometime during the early to middle of next week in the corridor
east of the northern Rockies toward the Upper Midwest. 
Predictability at this point, however, is low.