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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms will remain quite low through
tonight.

...New England to the Carolinas today...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will move eastward
over New England through tonight, along with an associated surface
cold front.  Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s across New
England and low 70s across the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic will precede
the cold front today, but clouds will slow surface heating and
midlevel lapse rates will be poor, which will limit buoyancy and
downdraft potential.  Vertical shear will also remain rather modest
in the warm sector across New England and will be very weak farther
south toward the Carolinas, which suggests that the threat for
severe storms appears too low for any outlook areas.

...South TX this afternoon...
The trailing cold front will continue to sag southward to near the
Gulf Coast, aided on the mesoscale by outflow with convection. 
Gusty outflow winds will be possible from the middle TX coastal
plain into south central TX with storms along the front this
afternoon, in conjunction with steep low-level lapse rates and
moderate buoyancy.  However, storms will tend to remain pulse-like
in nature and the threat for severe/damaging outflow winds appears
too low to add 5% wind probabilities.

...Eastern SD into MN through tonight...
Low-level moisture is limited in the wake of the Great Lakes
midlevel trough and associated cold frontal passage.  An upstream
shortwave trough over SK/MB will progress southeastward toward
northeast ND/northern MN overnight, and will be acco*panied by a
reinforcing cold front.  Prior to the next frontal passage, some
local moistening will occur through evapotranspiration, but this
moisture will tend to get redistributed upward through mixing this
afternoon.  This will leave rather modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg), driven mainly by surface heating and cool midlevel
temperatures (near -17 C at 500 mb).  The threat for thunderstorm
development during the day will be limited by the poor moisture and
(at best) weak forcing for ascent.  Ascent will increase some early
tonight with the approach of the SK/MB shortwave trough/cold front,
and with warm advection on the nose of a weak low-level jet from
eastern SD into southwestern MN.  With the majority of the
convection likely to be elevated tonight in a weakly buoyant regime,
the threat for severe storms appears too low for any wind/hail
probability areas.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/27/2022