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Mesoscale Discussion 1291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Areas affected...Much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252044Z - 252145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat will continue into the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite warm temperatures aloft and very weak lapse
rates, thunderstorms have developed in a very hot and moist airmass
across Alabama and the Florida Panhandle where temperatures are in
the 90s to near 100F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This has
yielded 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. However, despite the moderate to
strong instability, the intensity of these storms have been muted by
the aforementioned weak mid-level lapse rates and very weak shear
(<20 knots of flow in the lowest 6 km). Nonetheless, the airmass is
very moist with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches which, co*bined with
the weak shear, supports an environment favorable for water loaded
downdrafts and the potential for some damaging wind gusts. 

Much of the airmass across southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle has been worked over by earlier convection. Expect
additional strong to isolated severe storms across central and
northern Alabama where 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE remains and visible
satellite shows towering/clustering cumulus. This is likely where
the greatest severe threat will persist through the evening.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON   30828816 33048815 34638736 34748610 34068548 31578475
            30158451 29578454 29538544 30028600 30278660 30198741
            30168801 30168830 30828816