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Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Iowa...west-central Illinois...and
northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251917Z - 252115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Surface-based thunderstorm development is expected in the
next couple of hours over southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri. 
Strong instability coupled with sufficient vertical wind shear
should support thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and
severe hail.  Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible, pending
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning convection across the region,
daytime heating has removed most of the convective inhibition for
mixed-layer parcels. As a result, boundary-layer cumulus are
increasing over northern Missouri and southern Iowa as mid-level
clouds overspread the region from the southwest.  This mid-level
ascent is associated with ~40 knots of west-southwesterly flow
across Iowa (per the latest DMX VWP), which should help support
thunderstorm organization. Given the very moist and unstable airmass
(MLCAPE >2500 J/kg) across northern Missouri nosing into
southeastern Iowa, robust updraft development is expected for
initially discrete storms (including supercell structures) from
20-22Z, posing a risk of damaging winds and hail.  The expectation
is that these storms will merge and grow upscale this evening with
linear forcing as they move eastward into Illinois, resulting in a
transition to primarily a severe wind threat.

..Jirak/Hart.. 06/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39799425 40639392 41299351 41759269 42079176 41959065
            41279018 40569009 39909037 39589081 39399125 39239168
            39189211 39219267 39319384 39799425