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Mesoscale Discussion 1276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241902Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorm development is expected across the
Florida peninsula throughout the afternoon.  Isolated damaging wind
gusts will be possible with collapsing thunderstorm cores.  Weak
vertical wind shear will limit storm organization and preclude the
need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Very moist and unstable conditions across the northern
two-thirds of the Florida peninsula has already resulted in the
development of strong thunderstorms along low-level convergence
boundaries. MLCAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg and PW values over
2 inches (both exceeding 90th percentile values for 12Z JAX
soundings for this time of year) will support strong updraft
development.  Water loading and steep low-level lapse rates will
support a threat of isolated wet microbursts.  The weak flow/shear
throughout the troposphere will limit storm organization (primarily
pulse severe), so the damaging wind threat is expected to remain
isolated, precluding the need for a watch.

..Jirak/Hart.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28498264 29138280 29368288 29608232 29658158 29488117
            28858099 28288072 27538055 27228071 27018127 26848205
            27038236 27638270 28058275 28548263 28548263 28498264