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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity
late Saturday afternoon and evening, with a few posing at least some
risk for severe gusts and large hail.

...Central states...
Models show a mid-level shortwave trough over the Dakotas will move
east into the Upper Great Lakes by early evening while a flattened
mid-level ridge extends from the Four Corners eastward across the
south-central U.S. and into the Appalachians.  In the low levels, a
surface front will push east and southeast during the period across
a large part of the Corn Belt/Upper Midwest with the trailing
portion of the boundary pushing into the southern High Plains.  

A LLJ will be located from the central Great Plains
north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest early Saturday morning. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from
parts of the lower MO Valley northeastward into the Upper Midwest. 
The severe risk associated with the early day thunderstorm activity
will likely remain limited.  As the mid-level disturbance over the
Dakotas moves into western Ontario/Lake Superior vicinity by late
afternoon, 850-mb flow will weaken from WI/IA southward influenced
primarily by the stout mid-level ridge centered over the Ozark
Plateau.  However, heating either side of the wind shift/front and
appreciable low-level moisture will support the development of
moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon.  Scattered thunderstorms
will likely develop during the late afternoon near and
post-boundary.  Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent as the mid-level gradient lessens, which will primarily favor
a multicell mode.  Isolated severe gusts are possible along with
hail with the strongest cores.  This activity will likely diminish
by mid evening.  

Elsewhere, scattered diurnal storms will occur from the Four Corners
states westward into the Sierra Nevada and for parts of the
Southeast and southern Appalachians.

..Smith.. 06/24/2022