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Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...Central and Southern Pennsylvania...Eastern West
Virginia...Western Maryland...Central and Eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...401...

Valid 222216Z - 230015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400, 401
continues.

SUMMARY...c*nvective coverage is expected to increase across parts
of WW 400 and WW 401 over the next couple of hours. In response, the
potential for wind damage and hail will likely continue.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery from Pennsylvania southward
into Virginia show a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms.
The first is in north-central Pennsylvania and the second in
southwestern Pennsylvania. These two clusters are located along and
near an axis of strong instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in
the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. As the two clusters approach each
other, linear development will be possible. This convection will
move southeastward into the northwestern part of WW 400. Wind damage
and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.

Further south into northern Virginia, a third cluster is ongoing
near an axis of weak instability. The airmass immediately to the
south appears to have been undisturbed. This will make a severe
threat possible early this evening. The RAP has 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range across parts of south-central Virginia,
suggesting a wind-damage threat will be possible with the stronger
multicells within the cluster.

..Broyles.. 06/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   41467733 41557796 41417839 41067864 40407886 39917926
            39487933 39127923 38247913 37967908 37017891 36757851
            36697825 36717763 36907728 37367692 38057689 39127689
            41077693 41467733