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Mesoscale Discussion 1251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 221743Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Parts of western New York are being monitored for a risk
of strong to locally damaging gusts this afternoon. Watch issuance
is possible.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows increasing midlevel ascent
acco*panying a shortwave impulse overspreading the Great Lakes
region, where clear skies are favoring diurnal destabilization of a
moistening airmass (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints). Given the
increasing ascent and modest midlevel lapse rates per the BUF 12Z
sounding, convection approaching Buffalo could increase in intensity
ahead of a cold front this afternoon. While deep-layer shear is
limited over western NY, moderate/strong buoyancy and focused ascent
could support locally damaging gusts and marginal hail with the more
organized/longer-lived clusters. Convection could beco*e
increasingly organized as it tracks eastward this afternoon and
interacts with stronger effective shear near 20-30 kt. Watch
issuance is possible this afternoon.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42697925 42847903 43287902 43437852 43367753 43127658
            42397636 42067658 42007794 42027850 42137933 42427939
            42697925