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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Consensus within the latest medium-range guidance places a mature
cyclone near the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border early
D4/Saturday. This system is then forecast to progress eastward
across south-central and southeastern Canada and the Great Lakes
from D4/Saturday through D6/Monday. A cold front associated with
this cyclone is expected to progress eastward/southeastward across
the central Plains, Upper/Mid MS Valley, and Upper Midwest on
D4/Saturday. Western portion of this front will stall on D5/Sunday,
but the central and eastward portions are expected to continue
eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley and Northeast.
Thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves
eastward/southeastward, particularly on D5/Sunday. This front will
be displaced ahead of the stronger shear, limiting the large-scale
severe potential.

Westerly flow will remain in the vicinity of the international
border through the middle of next week, to the north of the
persistent southern CONUS upper ridge. Several shortwaves may
progress through this flow, but guidance continues to show
variability on their strength, speed, and timing, limiting
predictability.