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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage and hail will be
possible today across parts of the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. Marginally severe wind and hail may also occur in
parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. A few strong wind gusts could also
occur in southern California.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level low will retrograde westward today toward the
Mid-Atlantic coast, as a shortwave trough moves across the western
Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward
across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, moderate to strong instability will be in place by midday.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon along and
ahead of the front, from southern Ohio northeastward into central
Pennsylvania and southern New York. Several clusters of strong
thunderstorms will likely move southward across the central
Appalachians this afternoon. MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range,
along with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range and 0-3 km lapse
rates around 8.0 C/km will result in an isolated wind-damage threat.
The wind-damage threat is expected to spread southward across
western Maryland and into north-central Virginia during the mid to
late afternoon.

Further southwest across the lower Ohio Valley, moderate instability
will likely be in place by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with convection
moving southeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. In spite of the
moderate instability, deep-layer shear will be relatively weak
keeping most of the convection unorganized. A few strong wind gusts
could occur in areas where low-level lapse rates beco*e the
steepest.

...Oklahoma/Kansas...
A large area of high pressure will remain over the southern Plains
today. To the north of the high, an axis of moderate instability is
expected by afternoon from southwest Missouri extending westward
across southern Kansas. Thunderstorms should develop along the
western edge of the stronger instability across southwest Kansas and
northwest Oklahoma during the mid to late afternoon. These storms
will move slowly eastward along the instability corridor, with a
couple small multicell clusters possible. The instability co*bined
with a deep moist boundary layer will be favorable for marginally
severe wind gusts as low-level lapse rates peak in the late
afternoon. Hail may also occur with the stronger updrafts.

...Southern California...
An upper-level low will approach the middle California coast today.
At the surface, a trough will deepen from southern California
northward into the San Joaquin Valley. Warming surface temperatures
will result in a pocket of instability near the surface trough early
this afternoon. Thunderstorms that form within this pocket of
instability could have a severe potential, due to the nearly dry
adiabatic layer from the surface to 700 mb. The inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles could be favorable for marginally severe wind
gusts during the mid afternoon.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 06/22/2022