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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty
winds and hail are expected today from central Kansas northeastward
to the Upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
As an upper short-wave trough shifts eastward across the Canadian
Prairie Provinces/northern Plains today, some flattening of the
ridge enco*passing much of the U.S. will occur.

At the surface, a cold front will shift slowly eastward across the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region, and
southeastward across the Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains through
the day.  By late in the period, the front should extend from the
Lower Michigan vicinity west-southwestward to the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle area.

...Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
As the surface cold front progresses slowly eastward/southeastward,
diurnal heating of the very moist pre-frontal warm sector will
result in strong destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE of 3000 to
4000 J/kg is expected from Upper Michigan to eastern Kansas.

Despite rather weak upper forcing for ascent, isolated storms are
forecast to initiate near the front, though various CAM runs differ
in areas of relatively greater storm coverage.  Still, given the
degree of CAPE in tandem with moderate (20 to 25 kt) and weakly
veering flow with height, and a hot/deep mixed layer, potential for
damaging winds will exist with stronger cells.  While upscale growth
into clusters could result in a few corridors of more
concentrated/severe winds, at this time uncertainty with respect to
any areas of greater risk precludes an increase to SLGT risk. 
Still, the MRGL risk area is being expanding both northeastward and
westward, in anticipation of the potential need for slight risk
upgrade across portions of the risk area in later outlooks.

Local severe risk will likely continue through the afternoon and
early evening, before gradually diminishing through midnight.

..Goss/Wendt.. 06/21/2022