Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NY FINGER
LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...NORTHERN VA...AND
MUCH OF MD...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The highest probability for severe thunderstorms exists
from the New York Finger Lakes southward into the eastern West
Virginia Panhandle, northern Virginia, and much of Maryland.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging covering much of the southern CONUS is
forecast to be centered over the southern Plains Wednesday morning.
A shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern
periphery of this ridge, beginning the day over western Ontario and
the Upper Great Lakes before continuing eastward into western Quebec
and the Lower Great Lakes. Downstream of this shortwave, an upper
low is forecast to begin the period off the Northeast coast, before
gradually drifting westward towards southern New England. 

One other feature of interest is an upper low that is expected to
begin the day off the southern CA coast. Some modest northward
motion of this upper low is anticipated during the period, placing
the low near the central CA Coast. Enough mid-level moisture will
acco*pany this upper low to promote isolated thunderstorms over
portions of central and southern CA.

...OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...
Progression of the Quebec/Ontario shortwave will push an attendant
cold front southeastward across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes
region during the afternoon and evening. A warm and moist air mass
will likely be in place ahead of this cold front, with dewpoints in
the upper 60s/low 70s and temperatures reaching the 90s during the
late afternoon. These thermodynamic conditions will support a very
unstable air mass, and the potential for thunderstorms as the front
moves through. Vertical shear throughout much of the region will be
weak, limiting storm organization, but the robust buoyancy will
still support robust updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts
and/hail.

More southerly low-level flow is expected from just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic Coast into the Lower Great Lakes, resulting in lower
dewpoints and an effective warm front extending from northern NJ to
eastern Lake Ontario. Additionally, enhanced mid-level flow around
the upper low off the Northeast coast will impinge on this corridor,
resulting in a region of stronger vertical shear. The co*bination of
interacting surface features and stronger shear suggests the region
from Finger Lakes into eastern WV Panhandle/northern VA/central MD
could see higher severe storm coverage, with damaging wind gusts as
the primary risk, as storms develop in NY and progress southward
throughout the afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and a tornado or
two are possible as well.

..Mosier.. 06/21/2022