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Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Areas affected...northwest NE...southwest SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...

Valid 202026Z - 202230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for 60-85 mph gusts will probably increase during
the 230-430pm MDT period as a cluster of storms likely begins
evolving into a bowing segment.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery shows a cluster of storms
congealing over the northern part of the NE Panhandle as of 220pm
MDT.  CAPPI imagery from 10 km ARL shows a couple of intense
discrete updrafts embedded within the cluster.  

Surface analysis shows weak northerly flow which is maintaining
relatively moist low levels (dewpoints ranging from near 60 deg F to
the mid 60s near I-90).  Objective analysis indicates 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE from the northern part of the NE Panhandle northeastward into
central SD.  Long hodographs and the approach of increasing forcing
for ascent/flow associated with the approaching mid-level shortwave
trough, will probably aid in an acceleration in storm motion to the
northeast over the next few hours.  The strong heating and steep
low-level lapse rates ahead of the storm activity will likely prime
the boundary layer for severe gust potential through the late
afternoon.  As the storm mode evolution transitions to a mix of
embedded cells into a bowing structure, expecting an increase in
both the intensity and coverage of severe gusts.  Peak gusts could
range 75-85 mph.

..Smith.. 06/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42840306 43730171 43670135 43530106 43260101 42340262
            42580292 42840306