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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty
winds and hail are possible on Tuesday from northeast Kansas into
northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

...Synopsis...

An expansive upper ridge will enco*pass much of the central portions
of the CONUS on Tuesday, with an upper anticyclone centered over the
Lower MS Valley. A co*pact upper shortwave trough over the northern
Plains will shift east/northeast across western Ontario and the
upper Midwest, flattening the upper ridge across the Great Lakes and
resulting in the upper anticyclone migrating westward over the
southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop eastward
across western Ontario toward James Bay. A cold front attendant to
the low will extend from central MN into northwest KS early Tuesday,
and progress east/southeast through the period, beco*ing positioned
from northwest OH to the OK/KS border by Wednesday morning.

...Northeast KS to Southern WI...

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, a very moist airmass will be
in place with mid/upper 60s F to low 70s F dewpoints forecast. Warm
midlevel temperatures and a EML around 850-700 mb will result in
capping through at least early afternoon. As the midlevel trough
ejects to the northeast and the surface cold front begins to
progress east/southeastward, increasing ascent should sufficiently
erode the capping inversion, and isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected along the front from KS into
southern WI. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the very moist
boundary-layer will support MLCAPE values from 2000-4000 J/kg. This
will favor initially vigorous thunderstorm updrafts. However, strong
instability will be displaced to the east of stronger vertical
shear. Effective shear magnitudes will remain somewhat anemic,
around 20-25 kt, with little speed or directional shear to support
better organized convection. As a result, a few strong storms
capable of hail and gusty downburst winds will be possible, but
longevity and coverage of sustained severe convection appears
limited, precluding an upgrade to greater than Marginal severe
probabilities.

..Leitman.. 06/20/2022