Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (as large as 2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe
outflow gusts up to 75 mph are possible from the northern High
Plains across the Dakotas and into Minnesota this afternoon through
early tonight.

...Northern Plains this afternoon through early tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over northern UT this morning will eject
northeastward to the western Dakotas by early tonight, around the
northwest periphery of the closed high over the MS Valley.  A
surface front extending from northwest NE to central SD/eastern ND
will move little today, and then begin to accelerate eastward
tonight in response to the ejecting midlevel trough.  Upper 60s to
lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained along the
front through this evening, as well as eastward into MN.  Surface
heating (especially along and east of the stalled front), beneath
midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500-3000
J/kg this afternoon/evening near and east of the front.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to form by mid afternoon
in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough, within the post-frontal
environment from northeast WY into northwest NE.  Convection will
subsequently spread northeastward across the Dakotas through late
evening.  Vertical shear will be strongest along and west of the
stalled front, and buoyancy will be largest along and east of the
front.  Thus, the best chance for supercells and/or sustained bowing
segments with isolated significant severe (2"+ hail and 75 mph
gusts) will be along the front in the zone of most favorable
overlap.  Storms that form farther west will pose more of a marginal
wind/hail threat as a result of the weakening buoyancy with westward
extent across the northern High Plains, and storms in the warm
sector east of the front will encounter larger buoyancy and weaker
vertical shear, which favors occasional severe outflow gusts as the
main threat.

..Thompson/Dean.. 06/20/2022