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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms exists from
northeast Kansas into northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging (centered over the Mid-South) is forecast to
extend from the southern Plains across the Lower MS Valley and
Southeast, and across the OH Valley into Quebec. A shortwave trough
will likely progress through the northwestern and northern periphery
of this upper ridge, moving from the northern Plains through the
Upper Midwest into central Ontario. At the surface, a low associated
with the shortwave will progress northeastward ahead of it as an
attendant cold front moves southeastward across the Mid/Upper MS
Valley and Mid/Lower MO Valley. 

...Lower/Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from eastern KS
northeastward into southern WI, ahead of the approaching cold front.
Strong daytime heating will bring surface temperatures into the 90s,
resulting in robust buoyancy ahead of this front Tuesday afternoon
and evening. However, southwesterly surface winds will limit
convergence along the front, and warm low to mid-level temperatures
will result in convective inhibition. Convective initiation is still
anticipated along the front, but these factors will likely keep
coverage isolated to widely scattered. Most probable areas for
initiation appear to be across northeast KS, where surface
temperatures will be warmest, and in the vicinity of the WI/IA/IL
border intersection, where less boundary-layer mixing will keep
surface dewpoints higher.

Storm organization will be limited by modest vertical shear, as the
stronger vertical shear will remain displaced north and west of the
cold front. Even so, ample buoyancy suggests any more persistent
updrafts could produce hail and/or damaging downburst winds.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2022