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Mesoscale Discussion 1229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Areas affected...parts of eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200312Z - 200545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms acco*panied by occasional severe
surface gusts may remain possible in a corridor spreading
north-northeast of Jamestown into the international border vicinity
by 1-2 AM CDT.  It is not clear that a severe weather watch is
needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Within surface troughing trailing a low which has
migrated north of the international border into southern Manitoba,
the remnants of the strongly heated, seasonably moist and well-mixed
boundary layer appears to remain characterized by large CAPE,
north-northeast of Jamestown through the Grand Forks and Lake of the
Woods vicinities.  This is just ahead of a remnant lead cluster of
storms associated with a mid-level jet streak nosing
north-northeastward through the central Dakotas.  Coinciding with
the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet preceding the surface
trough axis, the convection has been aiding the downward transfer of
momentum, occasionally contributing to strong surface gusts. 
Despite the increase in inhibition associated with diurnal cooling,
it appears that the synoptic and sub-synoptic forcing for ascent may
remain strong enough to maintain this activity north-northeastward
into and across the international border vicinity by 06-07Z.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47859865 49089770 49529602 49269486 48559549 47889665
            46649833 46729946 47859865