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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms exists from
northeast Kansas into southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging is forecast to extend from the southern
Plains across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, and across the OH 
Valley into Quebec. A shortwave trough will likely progress through
the northwestern and northern periphery of this upper ridge, moving
from the northern Plains through the Upper Midwest into central
Ontario. A surface low associated with this shortwave will progress
northeastward ahead of it as an attendant cold front moves
southeastward across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Mid/Lower MO
Valley. 

A very moist air mass will precede this cold front. Strong heating
within this air mass will result strong to very strong buoyancy.
Convergence along the front will be minimized by southwesterly
surface winds, and warm low to mid-level temperatures will
contribute to convective inhibition. With the large-scale forcing
displaced northeastward, these factors cast doubt onto whether or
not updrafts can persist and mature. Given the amount of buoyancy,
any mature updrafts could produce hail and/or damaging downburst
winds, and a 5% area was delineated from northeast KS into far
southwest WI/northwest IL to cover this conditional threat.

..Mosier.. 06/19/2022