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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and hail are possible
across portions of eastern Montana into western North Dakota Sunday
afternoon and evening. Additional isolated strong storms may occur
into western South Dakota, eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska and
northeast Colorado, as well as parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified/slow-moving upper pattern will persist across the
U.S., with a western trough advancing slowly across the
Intermountain region, and the eastern trough/low crossing New
England and the western Atlantic.  In between, ridging over the
central U.S. will eventually beco*e aligned roughly along the
Mississippi valley region. 

At the surface, a weakening front will shift southward across
Florida and into the Gulf.  A second cold front crossing the
Intermountain region will reach the northern High Plains region
during the afternoon.

...Northern and central High Plains vicinity...
As the upper trough continues its very gradual eastward progression,
cyclonic disturbances/vorticity maxima will continue progressing
north-northeastward across the Rockies/High Plains region.  As a
cold front likewise shifts slowly eastward, into eastern
Montana/Wyoming during the afternoon, heating/moderate
destabilization will fuel storm development.  More widespread
development is expected across the southeastern Montana vicinity,
but more isolated initiation is expected as far south as
northeastern Colorado.

Given a belt of 40 to 50 kt south-southwesterly flow atop the
region, ample shear will support local intensification and attendant
severe potential.  Along with locally damaging wind potential, risk
for very large hail is evident across eastern Montana and into
western North Dakota during the late afternoon and evening hours.

...Florida...
As a gradually weakening cold front sags southward across Florida,
diurnal heating/destabilization will support afternoon storm
development near the front, and along sea-breeze boundaries.  With
modest mid-level northeasterly flow persisting across the area, a
few stronger storms may cluster together and move
southwestward/westward, and eventually offshore.  Gusty/possibly
damaging winds could acco*pany the stronger storms, through early
evening.

..Goss.. 06/19/2022