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Mesoscale Discussion 1214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...Pars of northern and central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 181639Z - 181915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms capable of
sporadic large hail and locally damaging downbursts should increase
through the afternoon hours. Convective trends are being monitored
for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Along and south of an east-west oriented outflow
boundary draped across parts of northern Florida, diurnal heating of
a very moist boundary layer (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) beneath
seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates (per TBW/JAX 12z soundings)
will contribute to a strongly unstable airmass. Cumulus is already
beginning to deepen along and south of the boundary, and convective
initiation is underway amid minimal MLCINH. As low-level lapse rates
continue to steepen, updrafts should gradually intensify along
antecedent outflow and sea breeze boundaries. While weak deep-layer
flow/shear should primarily yield pulse multicell-type convection,
the aforementioned thermodynamic environment should support sporadic
large hail and strong to locally damaging downbursts. With time,
convective clustering could support an increasing severe wind risk.
Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29288329 29488328 29628292 29498161 29168110 28538096
            27718169 27658231 27818291 28228287 28708277 29288329