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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR FL...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO WESTERN
AR/EASTERN OK...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this
afternoon/evening from the eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas
vicinity southeastward to the central Gulf Coast, and across the
Florida Peninsula. Sporadic strong gusts will be the main hazards
with these storms.  Isolated severe storms may also occur over
portions of northwestern Montana, acco*panied by risk for both large
hail and damaging winds.

...AR/LA/MS and FL this afternoon/evening...
In conjunction with an amplifying midlevel trough over the
Northeast, a surface cold front will move southward into FL and
southwestward across AR/MS/LA this afternoon/evening.  Weak lift
along the front, in co*bination with large MLCAPE (3500-4000 J/kg)
and DCAPE (greater than 1000 J/kg), will support widely scattered
storms by mid-late afternoon.  The strongest storms will be capable
of producing isolated damaging downbursts from western AR/eastern OK
into southern MS/southwest AL.  Storm coverage will be somewhat
greater across the FL peninsula as a remnant MCV moves southward
from southeast GA, and low-level lift is provided by the surface
cold front and the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sea breezes.  Though
vertical shear will be weak, thermodynamic profiles will favor
isolated damaging downburst winds with multicell clusters moving
southward across FL this afternoon.

...Northwest MT...
A slow-moving, north-south front will remain across northwest MT
through tonight, in the southerly flow regime to the east of a deep
midlevel trough near the Pacific Northwest coast.  Boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 50s and surface heating on the east edge of the
main cloud band will result in modest destabilization today, and
thunderstorm development will be possible along the
front/differential heating zone this afternoon/evening.  Though
buoyancy will be modest, very long hodographs will support the
potential for a supercell or two, with the attendant threats of
isolated large hail and damaging gusts.

...Southern/central Rockies to the northern High Plains...
The Southwest monsoon is underway with a plume of PW near or above 1
inch across eastern AZ/western NM, between the upper trough along
the Pacific coast and the ridge over the Plains.  Gusty outflow
winds will be possible from the Four Corners northward where pockets
of stronger surface heating and steeper lapse rates coincide with
convective clusters.  However, it appears unnecessary to add a 5%
wind/Marginal risk area to such a large area to account for sparse
damaging/severe gusts.  

Strong surface heating and deep mixing could support isolated
high-based storms this afternoon/evening along a lee trough from the
NE Panhandle into southwest SD.  Inverted-v profiles suggest some
potential for strong outflow gusts, but the threat for severe storms
appears too low to warrant the introduction of 5% wind
probabilities/Marginal risk.

..Thompson/Dean.. 06/18/2022