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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from the
eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas vicinity southeastward to the
central Gulf Coast, and across the Florida Peninsula. Sporadic
strong gusts will be the main hazards with these storms.  Isolated
severe storms may also occur over portions of northwestern Montana,
acco*panied by risk for both large hail and damaging winds.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper flow field will continue across North
America today, with troughs over both the eastern and western
portions of the country and sharp/intervening ridge centered over
the Plains/Canadian Prairie through the period.  Minor/slow eastward
translation of the overall pattern is expected.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to make minimal eastward
progress across the Intermountain West, while in the East, a front
sags southward/southwestward across the southeastern quarter of the
country.

...The Florida Peninsula...
As a surface cold front sags southward across northern Florida into
the afternoon, the moist/unstable environment near and south of the
front will support increasingly widespread thunderstorm activity, as
storms develop both near the front, and along west- and east-coast
sea-breeze boundaries.

Flow aloft will remain modest -- generally below 15kt through mid
levels.  However, given the northerly co*ponent to the flow field
aloft that should allow storms to organize into one or more
southward-moving clusters as cells merge/grow upscale, local risk
for damaging wind gusts remains apparent, through the afternoon and
into the early evening hours.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas vicinity to the central Gulf
Coast region...
Thunderstorm development is forecast to beco*e increasingly
widespread through midday/early afternoon from the central Gulf
Coast region westward/west-northwestward into the southern Plains,
within a moist/destabilizing airmass in the vicinity of a
weak/diffuse cold front.  While flow aloft should remain weak,
rather deep-layer quasi-unidirectional easterly flow may yield
weakly organized clusters of westward-moving convection, with
attendant/local risk for gusty winds with stronger storms.

...Northwestern Montana...
As the upper trough -- and likewise the surface cold front --
progresses gradually eastward, a similar scenario (from a convective
perspective) as was present Friday is expected to evolve once again
over portions of northern Montana, but displaced slightly eastward
from 24 hours prior.  As a modestly moist boundary layer
heats/destabilizes through the day, isolated thunderstorm
development is expected to occur -- aided by large-scale ascent
associated with the advancing upper system.  A couple of the
strongest storms may produce large hail and locally gusty/damaging
winds during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

..Goss.. 06/18/2022