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Mesoscale Discussion 1212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Areas affected...Northwest Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 172142Z - 172345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Though intense storm coverage will be limited, the
environment will favor supercells capable of large/very-large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored for a
possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery indicates increasing large scale
ascent within the northern Rockies region. Low 50s F dewpoints
remain within northern parts of Montana. Modifying the 18Z TFX
sounding for current conditions suggest most of the capping
inversion has already mixed out. The expectation is for isolated
storms to eventually develop within the terrain of west-central
Montana and move into richer low-level moisture to the north. The
observed sounding sampled a near 9 C/km mid-level lapse rate.
Despite only 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, these lapse rates and strong
effective shear (over 50 kts) will support organized storms so long
as they can persist and mature. Large hail (some 2+ inches) would be
possible with supercells. Even with weaker and less organized
convection, wind gusts approaching severe limits would be possible
given the dry/well-mixed boundary layer. With only isolated activity
expected, the need for a watch is not clear. However, a couple of
intense storms are possible. Trends will be monitored for a possible
watch later this afternoon.

..Wendt.. 06/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON   49001266 48151285 47141345 46701393 46521437 46531494
            46751530 48971484 49221419 49091266 49001266