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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected this morning
across the lower Ohio Valley and this afternoon/evening from the
southern Appalachians to southern Virginia, the Carolinas, and
Georgia.  More isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of
the southern/eastern New England, the northern High Plains, and the
northern Rockies.

...Lower OH Valley this morning to the Carolinas this afternoon...
An overnight MCS continues to move generally east-southeastward this
morning toward southern IN and northern KY.  The convection is being
maintained by a warm/moist boundary layer where overnight
temperatures remained near 80 F with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s,
beneath moderately steep midlevel lapse rates.  Some discrete
propagation of the MCS has been observed as a result of somewhat
modest low-midlevel shear on the southern edge of the stronger
mid-upper flow.  However, the favorable thermodynamic environment
will maintain a pronounced cold pool and the continued potential for
occasional wind damage through the morning.  The threat for damaging
gusts will also continue into the afternoon/evening as the low
levels destabilize, supporting renewed storm development along the
leading edge of the cold pool into southern VA and the Carolinas.

...New England today...
As a midlevel trough digs southeastward from ON/QC, a surface cold
front will move eastward across New England and southeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic by this evening.  Long, mostly straight hodographs,
with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt, are expected today
across southern New England into ME.  However, midlevel lapse rates
will be poor and forcing for ascent will be modest, which suggests
that updrafts will not be particularly robust.  A few storms with
strong/damaging gusts may occur today, but the threat for more
widespread severe storms appears rather low. 

...Northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening...
West of the midlevel ridge over the Plains and east of a deep trough
near the Pacific coast, lee trough development is expected across
the High Plains.  This trough could focus isolated, high-based
thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening immediately east of
the higher terrain from eastern WY northward into MT.  A very warm
elevated mixed layer will tend to cap the more moist boundary layer
east farther east of the lee trough and along a warm front into
eastern MT.  This, co*bined with largely meridional flow aloft, will
keep convection close to the trough and higher terrain.  Given the
very steep low-midlevel lapse rates, a few storms with strong-severe
outflow gusts will be possible.

..Thompson/Marsh.. 06/17/2022