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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
At least scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the
central and southern Rockies, Upper Great Lakes, and Florida
Peninsula on Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper pattern is forecast to be in place over the CONUS
early Sunday, characterized by expansive upper ridging centered over
MO and two flanking upper troughs. This trough/ridge/trough pattern
will persist throughout the period while gradually shifting
eastward. By early Monday morning, the upper ridge is expected to
extend across the MS Valley into Ontario, with the eastern upper
trough off the Northeast coast and the western upper trough extended
from the northern Rockies through the Great Basin.

Most prevalent features within the surface pattern will likely be
expansive ridging centered over the Upper Great Lakes and lee
troughing across the High Plains. The eastern CONUS ridging will
preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the region. The only
exception is across portions of the Upper Great Lakes, where
afternoon storm development is possible ahead of a subtle shortwave
cresting the upper ridge. 

The highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the central
and southern Rockies where modest moisture and daytime heating will
result in diurnal destabilization. High-based thunderstorms may
develop near the lee trough across portions of the High Plains, with
an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts. However, uncertainty
regarding coverage limits forecast confidence, precluding the
delineation of any areas.

..Mosier.. 06/17/2022